How FiveThirtyEight Adapted Its Election Model to Predict the Next Oscar Winners

Big night coming for The Revenant

FiveThirtyEight, the ESPN-owned data-driven news site, has become famous for its accuracy in predicting the outcomes of the past two presidential elections. But over the last few years, the site has attempted to use data to make predictions in another industry that launches yearlong campaigns in the quest for votes: the Oscars.

"[Nate Silver] kind of came up with the model in an off-election year," said Walt Hickey, FiveThirtyEight's lead lifestyle writer, who has been handling Oscars coverage for the past two years.

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