New Nielsen Data Could Lead To Chaotic Upfront

Buyers and sellers of TV ad time have been pressing Nielsen Media Research for nearly a year to produce commercial ratings data that could be used as currency in the 2007 upfront market. But following Nielsen's announcement last week that it will start issuing such data this spring, many media executives are saying the result could be the most chaotic upfront in 20 years. Nielsen said on Tuesday that in May it would begin issuing six new streams of commercial ratings data and six corresponding streams of programming data. The streams include data for live viewing, live-plus-DVR playback on the same day and separate streams for live-plus-one, -two, -three and -seven days of DVR playback. Some are hopeful the new system's glitches will be worked out in time for the negotiations, which begin in June. But the strongest consensus is that, because some of the networks may try to use the new data as currency while others may not, this year's upfront could be the most confusing since Nielsen shifted from the meter/diary-based methodology to the people meter technique in 1987."It all points to a very long upfront for 2007," said Lyle Schwartz, evp, director of broadcast research at WPP's Mediaedge:cia and an early proponent of switching to commercial ratings. It's almost certain that most of the major national cable networks will not endorse or use commercial ratings this year to sell the bulk of their ads. "It won't affect this year's upfront," said Sean Cunningham, president, the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau, which represents over 100 cable networks, including A&E, the Discovery Networks, CNN and ESPN. "There isn't any reason for any of my members to opt in until all of the fixes are in." Cunningham was referring to problems that Nielsen has had measuring cable, including the ability to distinguish between national and local ads. A rep for Nielsen (which is owned by Adweek parent VNU, which last week changed its name to The Nielsen Company), said those problems would be corrected "soon," and certainly by May when the new ratings are distributed.Tim Brooks, evp, research at Lifetime, said the commercial ratings need to be tested for a year before the cable industry would feel comfortable using them as currency. To ensure accuracy, he said, the new ratings need a seal of approval from the Media Ratings Council, the New York-based organization that audits measurement services. "This doesn't allow for time to do that" and use the new ratings this year, he said.Broadcasters have differing viewpoints. NBC, for example, doubts commercial ratings will be ready in time for the upfront. Instead, the network hopes that advertisers will budge off of last year's negotiating position, when they insisted on buying ads based on live program ratings that discounted all viewing done on a playback basis. For popular shows like CSI on CBS or Heroes on NBC, that can add up to 20 percent of the total audience, according to network researchers. "We can't stay with live," said Alan Wurtzel, president of research and media development, NBC. "Nielsen has demonstrated that around 40 percent of commercials are viewed in time shifting. We can't continue to leave all of those viewers on the table." Wurtzel's proposal for the 2007 upfront would be to use program ratings that measure live-plus-same-day viewing—which accounts for almost half of total DVR playback, per Nielsen—as a "transitional currency," giving the industry an additional 12 months to evaluate commercial ratings. Steve Sternberg, evp audience analysis at Interpublic's Magna Global, is also doubtful about getting commercial ratings up and running in time for this upfront. As to Wurtzel's suggestion of using live-plus-same-day programming ratings as the yardstick for negotiations this year, Sternberg didn't rule it out, but stressed it's sill under discussion at the IPG media shops. "It would be hard to imagine anything beyond live-plus-same-day," he said. "You need to determine whether the data is stable and whether the data is projectable before you can use it as currency," continued Sternberg. "You need to see seasonality and how the data changes over time."But CBS wants to negotiate ad deals in this year's upfront using commercial ratings data—and is prepared to do so if advertisers feel the new system is ready to go—said David Poltrack, president of CBS Visions and the network's top researcher. One proviso: Nielsen has to deliver on its promise to work the bugs out of the new process or all bets are off. "We're not looking for consensus, and we're prepared to go it alone if buyers say go for it," he said. But Sternberg said it would be too unwieldy to base some network buys on program ratings and others on commercial ratings. And if cable and NBC are not prepared to use commercial ratings for this upfront, he said, they probably won't be used at all. "You can't buy different networks on different bases," he said. "It just leads to chaos." Other agencies say it's too early to tell whether commercial ratings will be "actionable" for the 2007 upfront negotiations. "Nielsen still has a lot of work to do" between now and May when the ratings are unveiled, said Mediaedge:cia's Schwartz. "I'm comfortable with insights we've derived [through custom research], but whether they can produce it" at the level of quality needed for buying and selling remains to be seen. "I would have liked to have had the actual ratings earlier than May to analyze my clients' specific schedules based on their buying techniques and strategies." And while the TV industry has relied on a single, uniform currency upon which to buy and sell ads for most of its history, some executives believe that going forward it is possible that multiple currencies will be used in the marketplace to conduct business, depending on the needs and objectives of individual clients. "Our recommendation will be for some clients to work with program ratings," said Aaron Cohen, evp, media investment officer, Horizon Media. "For others, our recommendation would be commercial ratings." But veteran TV researcher Erwin Ephron said the new currency is almost irrelevant. "I think this is housekeeping," he said. "The central issue in television today is who is seeing the commercials. No matter what the configuration of the streams finally is, it will be a gross overestimate of people actually seeing the commercials. The volume of messages is choking the medium." — with Laura Blum

Brand Marketing

New Nielsen Data Could Lead To Chaotic Upfront

Steve Mcclellan

About

Subscriptions

Events

Publications

WORK SMARTER - LEARN, GROW AND BE INSPIRED.

Subscribe today!

Steve Mcclellan