A Gold Mine for Media

With the floor-length scroll of gubernatorial candidates finally fixed over the weekend, California media await a torrent of found money to come their way as candidates joust ahead of the Oct. 7 recall election. The final spending tally in the race—which has drawn national interest and a bizarre crop of contenders—could easily exceed $100 million, insiders and buyers predict. As the Saturday deadline for registering approached, close to 400 candidates had taken out papers, the first step in running for governor. They included Arnold Schwarzenegger (whom a source said could spend $40 million-plus just by himself), political columnist Arianna Huffington, sex-industry worker Angelyne and millionaire pornographer Larry Flynt. "We're fielding requests as I speak," said Dave Blaszkowski, national sales manager for WB affiliate KTLA-TV in Los Angeles. "A lot of people are jockeying for position." Among the reasons for the intense interest outside California is the race's carnival-like atmosphere and the fact that this is only the second time in U.S. history that a governor has faced recall—and the first since 1921 in North Dakota. The election and its ad impact are "uncharted waters," said Jean Brooks, evp of the political division of independent Palisades Media Group in Santa Monica, Calif. In 2002, the candidates for California governor—Democratic winner Gray Davis, Republican Bill Simon and wealthy primary contenders—spent a record $130 million, according to state records. David Doak, principal of Doak, Carrier, O'Donnell & Associates, the Washington, D.C., political consultancy and ad agency handling Davis' anti-recall defense, said spending could hit that level again because "you have so many millionaires. The only ones who can win it are those who can finance it themselves." Doak, who has worked with Davis since 1997, said he is "preparing to do battle" but would not say when ads would break. Davis' committee, Californians Against the Costly Recall, may spend $15-20 million or more, depending on the field, and will "probably be outspent," said Doak. LUC Media in Marietta, Ga., will lean heavily on African American and Hispanic buys, targeting the core Democratic constituency with ads that "raise doubts about the prospects of the outcome, the cost of it, the uncertainty," Doak said. Chris Werner, president of LUC Media, said he does not believe the adspend will reach $100 million because of limited TV time slots. But, he warned, that could spark a bidding war for prime time. Karen Hanretty, press secretary of the California Republican Party, said she anticipates "a minimum of six weeks straight of campaign ads on the air. Airtime is very important in California. It's too large to canvas." Chris Wysocki, one of the partners of the pro-recall Rescue California Committee, acknowledged that RCC alone could spend $15 million. "The compressed time frame means you'll be seeing a lot more electronic than print," he noted, including talk radio. Wysocki declined to give a launch date of his side's ad campaign as well. The RCC will create its ads in-house.Wysocki said Schwarzenegger and 2002 GOP contender Darrell Issa, who lost in the primary and bankrolled the recall, were among those who contributed to the committee, which Wysocki said raised $2.3 million and collected more than 1.3 million signatures in 60 days. The pro-recall ad strategy, he said, will "focus on the record, not be mean or vindictive. The tone is that of remorse, like having to fire someone."

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A Gold Mine for Media

Gregory Solman

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Gregory Solman