NEW YORK David Verklin, CEO of Aegis Group's Carat Americas, told an Advertising Week crowd at the Time Warner Center here today that he believes advertisers will shift some $40 billion collectively out of their TV budgets in the next three years for use in new and emerging channels of communications.
But he stressed that the shift by no means signals the end of TV advertising, or the 30-second spot.
TV will still account for roughly half of the typical ad budget (or more than $125 billion across the industry), down from about two-thirds today.
"In the future I see the TV commercial as a portal," Verklin said, whereas up to now, TV spots have been self-contained units that viewers see (or skip) and then move on.
But with interactive technology, TV spots have become "a beginning, a conduit that leads viewers to [further action]. They can bookmark the ad for future viewing or request more information or telescope to a longer-form message," or even link to a transaction site, he said.
While TV budgets will drop, digital budgets will continue to climb, with most major marketers earmarking between 15 to 20 percent of their budgets for the on-line space, up from the current 5-8 percent, he said.
At the same time, the computer will link consumer online search histories to TV viewing patterns to offer viewers products and services when they appear to be looking for them, he said.
"We can shape the future of advertising if we talk about it, have an interest in it and if we become students of the industry again. We are about to see the collision of brand advertising, direct marketing, data analytics and technology deployed with a purpose," Verklin said.
"We're about to see a future with communications planning at its core; with advertising being placed in front of [those who are] interested with incredible speed to market." That, he said, "is my favorite future."