Art & Commerce: 3rd Time's a Trend

Spotting trends is big business. Spotting trends when they're right on the cusp is bigger business still. The trick is to be first to market when there's a big enough market to matter. Hitting this moving target gets harder every year as consumer needs evolve at an ever-accelerating pace and the technological tools for spreading trends makes them ever more contagious.So how do you know when a trend is ripe and ready? A magazine editor once told us, "If I hear it once, it's news. If I hear it twice, it's coincidence. If I hear it three times, it's a trend. If I hear my mother talking about it, it's a trend whose time has definitely come." Here are some consumer behaviors, beliefs, hopes and wants that people may be talking about in the coming year:The new luxury: expertise vs. prestige. As high-end goods reach down to the mass market, luxury is evolving to create a new elite consumer that values expertise more than prestige. Instead of looking to the wealthy for what's aspirational, this consumer looks to the experts as their role models. Rather than just going out and buying a Sub-Zero refrigerator, for example, these new luxury consumers will ask, "What do the best chefs use in their kitchens?"The weight-management gap. Just as the income gap continues to widen, there will be a growing disparity in waistlines. A small group of consumers will take advantage of the proliferating healthy-eating options—from organic food to low-fat ice cream—to assertively take and keep control of their weight. But the vast majority of overweight Americans, stressed out and financially stretched, will feast on products like Wendy's Baconator at an unapologetic 830 calories per pop and continue to grow heavier. The gulf between the lightest and the heaviest will widen, making America one of the healthiest and unhealthiest nations simultaneously. Beyond green to transparent. As more and more companies jump on the green bandwagon, consumers' skepticism meters will start to go off. Environmentally friendly platitudes will no longer be sufficient to differentiate. Consumers will demand more proof that a company or brand is actively reducing its carbon footprint. Timberland is already talking substance with its consumers, asking, "What kind of footprint will you leave?" Each box of shoes or boots bears a label detailing the environmental impact of its manufacture and distribution. The goal is to reduce that footprint every year.The rise of the male influencer. As men continue to shop more for themselves and play a bigger role on the home front, their influence as consumers will continue to grow. No longer relegated only to stores like Home Depot, Best Buy and the car dealership, they will look for products—from shampoos to marinades—and retail experiences that understand their unique and increasingly complex male points of view. Brands like Jack Black grooming products have bypassed the metrosexual myth, giving men more sophisticated skin care while speaking in a genuinely masculine voice. Beautiful food. After the proliferation of health and wellness in foods, some consumers accept more readily that food is the source of true beauty. Super-sensory and super-functional foods will seek more receptive targets who truly adopt the mantra that beauty begins inside. Mars is betting on this trend with its upcoming launch of Dove Beauty, a chocolate product with skin-nourishing ingredients. L'Oreal and Coca-Cola are teaming up to launch Lumae, reportedly a health and beauty beverage that's good for the skin. Expect to see more functional foods that make beauty promises for hair, skin, nails, metabolism and longevity.Purity and safety. A consumer realization is reemerging that brands have the central responsibility for maintaining trust with the public when it comes to safety. More consumers will expect their brands to communicate safety and purity in a way that is clear, believable and trustworthy. Naked Juice has done this with its promotional "protests" against unnatural additives, preservatives and other ingredients that interfere with the wholesome purity of the product. Some consumer segments will be willing to pay a lot more for the peace of mind and reassurance that a brand has its checks—and priorities—in place. The sound of products. "Snap, crackle and pop" has long demonstrated the influence and association sound can have with consumers. Now the world of physical product and sound is about to become a hotbed of innovation. Hallmark has successfully demonstrated the potential to move consumers into a new level of "auditory association" with greeting cards. Products will look for new ways to integrate digital media into packaging, p-o-p and, of course, advertising. With consumers responding to sound, no wonder brands like Samsung are unifying the audio logo that their devices—from DVD players to cell phones—"sing" as they boot up. Authenticity: brand soul. Consumers are now in constant communication with their brands, and they will look more and more for true brands that share their passions and motivation. Such companies have a clear reason for being that allow them to engage with an authentic voice in every element of the marketing mix. The brand soul is not necessarily a mission or a charitable cause, but it can be. Brand soul is usually related to values and ethics, i.e., quality, self-esteem, integrity. Consumers will see brands without soul as relying on the hard sell of products and services built on pushy, benefit-based positioning statements and forgettable payoffs. Trader Joe's has soul because its employees live and breathe brand equity. Dove's soul is about being real, because the brand has developed a deeply empathetic, heartfelt link with consumers. Now go share this with your mother.

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Art & Commerce: 3rd Time's a Trend

Carol Davies

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Carol Davies