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Paper Gains Newspaper advertising, though up in absolute dollars, commands a steadily shrinking wedge of the media pie, according to Zenith Media's Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, and this slice will likely shrink further. That's the case in the U.S. and, partly because the U.S. accounts for 43 percent of the world's ad spending, globally as well. There are, though, 10 countries (out of the 47 covered in the report) where newspapers' share is projected to be rising. In Malaysia, one of the few places where newspapers are the dominant medium, the industry will benefit from upgrades in production and distribution. In South Korea, heavy-handed regulation of TV is creating opportunities for newspaper growth. Government crackdowns on "pirate" broadcasters in China is helping the print media there, although the data are probably not reliable. In some countries, such as Mexico, the growth in literacy is helping, as is the development of a middle class. Upscale advertisers find newspapers to be a much more efficient way than TV to reach their target prospects. --Alan Gottesman (westendal pobox.com) is principal of West End Consulting.

THE GOTTESMAN FILE
Newspapers' share of all ad spending is projected to rise in 10 countries until the millennium.

.....1997 share.....2000 share.....

.....Malaysia.....59.9%.....61.4%.....
.....Netherlands.....51.1%.....51.7%.....
.....South Korea.....45.6%.....48.8%.....
.....China.....35.9%.....37.7%.....
.....Turkey.....36.1%.....36.3%.....
.....Vietnam.....33.3%.....36.0%.....
.....South Africa.....29.6%.....30.4%.....
.....Uruguay.....22.6%.....23.7%.....
.....Poland.....13.0%.....13.3%.....
.....Mexico.....6.8%.....7.3%..........


Source: Zenith Media