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By Alan Gottesman





Midcourse Correction Continued economic bustle, plus results of the year's first few months, has convinced prognosticator Bob Coen, a senior vice president at McCann-Erickson, to update his estimates for the advertising industry's 1997 performance. Since his first look at the year in December, he's found an extra billion dollars or so on the national level and $2 billion more in local markets. Most media saw their prospects improve over the last six months, with cable television getting the biggest estimated increase nationally. The largest trim hit spot television; some canny buyers may be purchasing on local markets, and spending from many of the medium's stalwart customers is actually down so far this year. At year-end, spot television will still post gains over 1996, but the increase will be 2 percent, half of the 4 percent projected in the December forecast. The outlook is even better on the local level. Here, the additional $2 billion will be spread across the board. The revisions are certainly good news, but even so--with the advertising business expected to gain 6.2 percent over 1996--the pace will be the slowest since 1993. --Alan Gottesman (westendal





@pobox.com) is principal of West End Consulting.





THE GOTTESMAN FILE





McCann's original 1997 media spending forecast, projected in December '96, was revised six months later.








Dec. '96.....June '97.....Change





.....Television networks (Big 4).....13.57.....13.35.....-1.7%





.....Spot television.....10.25.....10.00.....-2.4%





.....Cable/syndication.....6.34.....7.64.....20.5%





.....Radio.....2.72.....2.84.....4.6%





.....Magazines.....9.73.....9.73.....0.0%





.....Newspapers.....4.55.....4.73.....4.0%





.....Direct mail.....36.76.....36.58.....-0.5%





.....Yellow Pages.....1.65.....1.68.....2.1%





.....Others.....22.41.....22.64.....1.0%





.....Total.....107.96.....109.19.....1.1%





Source: McCann-Erickson. Figures in billions of dollars





Copyright ASM Communications, Inc. (1997) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED





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