iPad Changes Everything?

When it comes to the much-hyped debut of the iPad, brands would be advised to channel their inner Donald Rumsfeld. The former Secretary of Defense in 2002 summed up the murky situation in Afghanistan by saying, "There are known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we do not know we don't know." The iPad, which early reviews position as a "game-changing" tablet computer readymade for media consumption, brings up a host of known and unknown unknowns for brand advertisers. Many result from the fact that few people have used the iPad. The role of advertising on the device isn't yet set, nor is the size of the audience needed to establish it as an important advertising platform.Perhaps most worrying for some, the iPad could lead to a separate operating environment from the Internet, threatening the progress the Web has made in becoming a credible brand advertising medium. Despite its tremendous potential, the iPad is mostly a mystery and it will continue to be until consumers have used them for a while. "We're going to be looking at how many people are using it," said Jon Tauber, manager of digital media for MillerCoors, which is running Coors Light ads on the Sporting News iPad app. "Our focus is selling beer. It's important we market on platforms that can reach large numbers of legal-drinking consumers." Even how consumers will use it is a matter of conjecture. R/GA's emerging technology team debated the issue, according to Rich Ting, director of the emerging platforms group at the agency. It concluded that the iPad would be unlike most mobile devices, which are personal, and instead be shared.Robin Steinberg, director of print investment at MediaVest who is leading the Publicis Groupe shop's iPad strategy, sees 2010 as a time of experimentation for advertisers. Some won't have the stomach for the medium, with its small numbers and uncertain metrics. Many others are attracted by the lure of establishing a foothold on what they see as a major advance in mobile computing that includes a large screen seemingly ideal for brand messaging. FedEx, Nike and Cadillac are among the advertisers kicking off early programs on the device.The iPad excitement has led some publishers to seek to turn the tables on advertisers on pricing, according to media buyers, seeing the chance to play off the scarcity of iPad impressions and their large canvas for branding. MediaVest's Steinberg called the long-term, expensive commitments requested from many publishers "unrealistic." National Public Radio, which is selling advertising on its own iPad app, sees pricing above the Web and mobile, justified by the larger creative and what it is betting are higher interaction rates like those experienced with iPhone ads. "It merits a high CPM," said Blake Truitt, svp of sponsorships at NPR. One big problem with pricing for the iPad is the audience is unknown. Piper Jaffray anticipates 200,000-300,000 will be sold next week. Over the course of the first year, the research firm projects 2.7 million sales. (Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, forecasts 8-10 million devices sold this year.) The reality is, for the near future, most publications will not have large audiences on the device. Perhaps the largest unknown stemming from the iPad is what role it will play in the advertising system. Apple has never been involved in the ad world, but with the iPhone, its purchase of ad network Quattro Wireless and now the iPad, it's smack in the middle of determining its future. The firm is known for its inclination to go its own way rather than adhere to industry standards. Most notably, the iPad does not support Flash, the common Web technology used for video, many Web sites and most online advertising. That made MillerCoors not link its iPad ads to the Coors Light site for fear of a bad user experience. Most campaigns on the iPad will require separate measurement and development from those online. Some wonder whether Apple will create a parallel environment-a "splinternet" in the words of Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff-that ultimately makes it harder for advertisers to run broad reach campaigns on multiple platforms. The risk, warns Interactive Advertising Bureau CEO Randall Rothenberg, is the already strained digital ad system will break. The only way for industries to rise beyond "craft businesses" is to offer standardization and scale. That's the big challenge for digital advertising, in Rothenberg's view, and it is under threat from what he calls "semi-private gated communities." Others argue that such messiness is inevitable with the introduction of a new platform, issues that will be worked out down the road. Publishers like CNN, Reuters, Vimeo and Time rejiggered their Web sites to make sure they show properly on the iPad, opting to use Flash rival technology HTML5, for instance. "I do think this is going to be a seminal moment," said Wenda Harris Millard, president of consultancy MediaLink. "What to watch is how consumer behavior changes."

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iPad Changes Everything?

Brian Morrissey

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Brian Morrissey