Even if Peter Olson produced his annual rah-rah face-saving report of Random House‘s doings right this second, it wouldn’t change how far up things are in the air for the house’s parent company, Bertelsmann. Though the German-based conglomerate denied a report in Manager magazine about a potential sale of some divisions, saying the “speculations” by the German publication that it may offload BMG, Gruner & Jahr, Direct Group or some combination thereof “lack any basis,” there’s little doubt in my mind that something of that nature is going to happen in 2007 – likely in the early part of the year.
Why? Thank Group Bruxelles Lambert, the minority shareholder who was hell-bent on taking its 25 percent stake – for a cool $5.8 billion – public. The Mohn family, equally intent on preventing such a thing, bought out GBL and ramped up the conglomerate’s debt to $11.2 billion dollars, which is a whole lot of money to pay down when sales across the board are flat. So no wonder sectors all across the Bertelsmann board are running nervous – and for Random House, whose only profitable imprints are the Children’s Group and Crown, the nerves are jangling at an all-time high, which might explain its recent gutting of most of the sales force (yes, RH spokesman Stuart Appelbaum told Ron that “only a fraction” of sales representatives were let go, but sources close to the company dispute this by a wide margin.)
Which is why RH’s fourth-quarter earnings will be scrutinized that much more closely. Because if sales dip even a smidgen, something -or more importantly, various someones – will have to give. Even as rumors swirl that Bertelsmann is interested in acquiring a stake in Thomson Corporation to boost its presence in the science and textbook business, don’t be surprised if all of its properties are grist for the rumor mill – even Random House. Because with more than $11 billion dollars of debt to pay off, anything and everything is potentially up for grabs.