A new interactive put out by Washington City Paper, based on a PPP poll conducted for WCP and the Kojo Nnamdi Show earlier this month, shows how this year’s Mayoral race could stretch far beyond the Democratic primaries. DC is a heavily Democratic town, and winning the nom is usually a guarantee of victory in November. But this year, majorities of supporters of all the top-tier candidates -except Vincent Gray’s -say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for a non-Democrat if their candidate doesn’t win the nomination.
If Gray does win, he’ll have a lot of disaffected Democrats looking for other options. 57% of Murial Bowser’s supporters who were polled said they were “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to look outside the Democratic party, while 61% of Jack Evans supporters and 59% of Tommy Welles supporters say the same. By contrast, if Gray loses, the eventual Dem nominee won’t have to worry as much about losing his supporters -only 41% of whom said they would look elsewhere.
This could boost the chances of Independent candidate David Catania. Catania was first elected to city-wide office as a Republican, but split from the party in 2004 over their stances on gay marriage and urban issues. He has since run and been elected as an Independent, and declared his candidacy for Mayor March 12.