It is unknowable, of course, exactly what effect the unrelenting march of bad news about the world economy and financial markets will have on brands and their marketing plans next year.

ValueClick's John Ardis sums up the general feeling out there in our annual Media Outlook, telling Mediaweek's Mike Shields in the Digital report that while this is the season marketers typically are focused on the coming year, the frightening roller coaster we're all strapped into has most of us preoccupied with just getting through the moment. "A lot of people are not yet talking about 2009," says Ardis. "Instead, they're saying, 'We've got to bring this home in the fourth quarter.'"

And this from a person whose world -- digital media -- is enjoying good times.

In fact, digital, along with the broadcast and cable networks and the out-of-home sector, all stand to fare relatively well in the coming year, according to forecasters. But in these unpredictable times, many prognosticators already are tempering their projections. And that is especially bad news for media segments that, even pre-crash, weren't looking so hot. For those businesses -- local spot and syndicated TV, radio, and newspaper and consumer magazine publishing -- '09 is likely to bring rough waters indeed.

Grab your life jacket and strap yourself in. Below are economic forecasts for the following; Broadcast TV, Cable TV, Spot TV, Syndication, Digital, Print, Radio and Out of Home.

--Tony Case, Editor, Special Reports


Network TV: Mass Appeal

Cable TV: Wired Up

Spot TV: Weak Spots

Syndication: No Laughing Matter

Digital: Power Surge

Print: Paper Pains

Radio: Tuning Out

Out of Home: A Knockout



NETWORK TV: Mass Appeal

Despite soft auto and financial, nets could hold steady -- if they deliver ratings winners

By John Consoli, Mediaweek

While the economic downturn isn't great news for any media segment, the broadcast networks could be spared the worst, as they continue to command top dollar based on their still-massive reach.

"The auto and financial categories will struggle a bit next year and will cut back on advertising -- it's too early to tell what the other categories will do," says Lee Westerfield, analyst at BMO Capital Markets. "But the broadcast networks will outperform most of the rest of the ad market."

Adds Westerfield, whose firm projects ad revenue for the networks to grow 1 percent in '09 versus this year, "It is striking that the broadcast networks, even in this challenged economy, continue to get the prices they are getting for advertising."

PricewaterhouseCoopers sees a 1.5 percent gain versus this year, which was artificially inflated by NBC's influx of Olympics ads. Zenith Optimedia is forecasting a decline of 1.6 percent. Veronis Suhler Stevenson projects a 5.1 percent falloff in '09.

Media buyers say marketers -- even in squeezed economic times when the urge is to cut budgets -- need to keep their brands top of mind with consumers and cannot take a chance on letting rivals steal market share. And certain categories -- among them, movies, fast food, packaged goods and retail -- are expected to remain buoyant even through hard times. Of course, other categories -- the stressed automotive and financial services sectors, in particular -- will most certainly feed fewer dollars to the networks.

Marc Goldstein, president/CEO of GroupM North America, expressed confidence that many brands won't cut back on network in the coming year. "In the past, we have always recommended to our clients that in a down economy they maintain ad spending so that they not lose market share and have to eventually spend more to re-establish their brands when the economy turns around," Goldstein says. "In the past, they didn't heed that, but over time, they've learned their lesson."

Still, it's up to the networks to continue to deliver programming that lives up to the ratings guarantees they promised advertisers during the upfront. Otherwise, their ad take will be diluted by makegoods. And because the networks sold higher percentages of ad inventory in this year's upfront, scatter inventory will be tighter, meaning fewer units to sell if they have to dole out makegoods. While the price of ads would go up, that would be offset by fewer available ad units.

Early returns this season look promising for the networks.

Dancing With the Stars, ABC's answer to Fox's midseason juggernaut American Idol, averaged some 20 million viewers each of its first two nights. Meanwhile, several of CBS' hit procedural dramas -- the CSI franchise, NCIS, Criminal Minds -- scored audiences of 15 million-plus. Even The CW has drawn more than 3 million viewers for dramas Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill, up by hefty double digits over last season.

Of course, the TV season is long, and the first few weeks often do not foretell how the networks will end up in the ratings race.

However, the hobbled economy, some say, could bolster ratings, as consumers could opt to stay home and watch TV.

In its forecast, PwC contends that the transition to digital next February will spur sales of high-definition sets, which will "sustain TV viewing over the long run and support continued advertising growth."

Adds PwC, "Networks are finding that ratings for HD channels in HD households are higher than ratings for standard channels in all households, indicating that HD can boost audiences. As HD penetration expands,television will be better able to hold on to its audiences in the face ofgrowing competition from other media."

John Consoli is a senior editor covering network television and media agencies for Mediaweek.



CABLE TV: Wired Up

Ratings-powered original programming to keep cable electrified in '09

By Anthony Crupi

Unless you happen to be ripped to the gills on weapons-grade antidepressants, odds are the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and the subsequent mid-September collapse of two of the country's largest investment banks has left you a little unsteady on your pins.

A year ago, the ad industry faced uncertainty borne of a slumping housing market and inflated oil prices; since then, those worries have metastasized. If Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke are to be believed, a $700 billion bailout is the only way to avoid total economic collapse.

Not for nothing is economics known as the Dismal Science.

Because legislators are busy weighing implications of the Bush administration's proposal, and because the full burden of the assumed taxpayer debt is unknown, forecasters don't have a crystalline picture of how the ad market will behave in '09. And yet, most say cable will shrug off catastrophe.

To be sure, cable has continued its winning ways of late, even as the overall TV market has begun to cool. This year, cable is projected to increase its take by 8.4 percent, to $22.2 billion, per PricewaterhouseCoopers. Nielsen Monitor-Plus reports that in the first half of this year, cable ad revenue grew 8.1 percent, to $12.8 billion. This, as the overall ad spend dropped 1.4 percent in the first half.

But the macroeconomic climate will almost certainly have a chilling effect on the sector. Spending on network cable is expected to grow 3.4 percent to just under $23 billion in '09, reports PwC. While that would beat out broadcast for the fifth consecutive year, it also represents cable's smallest percentage increase since 2002.

That said, when the various projections for '09 are mapped, the results describe the classic, vertiginous tidal wave of Poisson distribution. BIA Financial anticipates network cable growth of 1.5 percent in '09, while Vogel Capital projects a 2 percent lift. Universal McCann projects 4 percent growth, while Veronis Suhler Stevenson eyeballs a 5.6 percent spike. Wachovia Securities forecasts a more bullish 10 percent gain.

If there's little consensus as to how things will shake out next year, thenear term may offer some illumination. Few advertisers have pulled out oftheir upfront commitments, and while scatter has slowed again after a late-third-quarter surge, pricing for top-flight inventory remains somewhat inflated. Moreover, even as the brown stuff flies ever fan-ward, October political spend may counteract further softness in the fourth quarter.

While ad sales executives begged off making any long-term predictions, agency heads had plenty to say on the matter.

Speaking from the dais during an Advertising Week panel in New York last week, GroupM CEO Irwin Gotlieb said he was unsure how consumers would respond to Wall Street's meltdown. "The best-case scenario is that the consumer doesn't comprehend what just went on and goes on merrily about their way," he said. "But there is elasticity in consumer confidence, and it does tend to bounce back, whether the situation is understandable or not."

On another panel, Miles Nadal, chairman and CEO, MDC Partners, expressed confidence that clients will have the presence of mind not to cut and run. "I think clients still have substantial budgets but they are trying to figure out how to spend them," he said. "There is money available for 2009. Some will spend more than others...and in every category, there will be winners and losers."

For clients looking for a more felicitous bang-to-buck ratio, cable remains TV's ultimate value proposition. TNT and USA Network regularly outdeliver some broadcast nets with their original programming. And while the Turner net has been particularly aggressive in trying to close the CPM gap, cable remains a relative bargain.

Anthony Crupi is a senior editor covering cable for Mediaweek.



SPOT TV: Weak Spots

The absence of political ads and skidding auto business portend a soft year for stations

By Janet Stilson

The Spot TV market will see a sucking riptide in 2009, owing to the huge wave of political ads to wash away once the last vote is cast in November.

Local TV stations stand to bring in about $2.25 billion in political ads this year, out of a total political ad contribution of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion, per the Television Bureau of Advertising's analysis of data from TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group.

The absence of political along with the drifting away of Olympics-related ads and prospects of a deepening recession have PricewaterhouseCoopers predicting next year to be the worst for spot in the five-year period from 2008 to 2012. The firm anticipates the sector will experience a 4.9 percent drop, to $26.6 billion.

A sunnier assessment comes via Zenith Optimedia, which predicts only a 1 percent decline (although it is expected to revise projections downward in October). The TVB projects a decline between 2 percent and 5 percent.

But it is national spot -- accounting for the biggest chunk of political dollars -- that will really get squeezed. PwC forecasts an 8.4 percent year-over-year decline in 2009, to $11.6 billion, while the TVB sees a 7percent to 10 percent loss.

Val Napolitano, president and CEO of the rep firm Petry Media, concurs in the TVB's assessment. If, as some predict, the recession is not as bad as some analysts warn, he says, "We have the opportunity to hit the upper end of the TVB's range." But he expects the recession to be of some duration and does not anticipate an uptick until third quarter 2009.

Shifting methodology in TV-ratings measurement -- specifically, people meters moving into local markets -- likely will mean somewhat lower ratings for stations, raising cost-per points, says Kathy Doyle, svp, local broadcast at Universal McCann. But given the overall economic and ad climate, she expects next year to be a buyer's market.

Chris Rohrs, TVB president, says while it certainly is a buyer's market today -- and he agrees it is tilting thus in '09-that is not a given. "We're in a period of time where there's so little predictability," he says.

Also impacting stations will be the ability to hold onto their share of their single biggest category, automotive, at a time of titanic pressure for that industry. Spot has slowly but surely lost share in total auto ad spending -- from 30.4 percent in 2002 to 27.4 percent in the first half of '08, per TNS. In the first six months of this year, auto spending is down 14 percent year over year, according to TNS.

Station groups are reacting to the challenge in different ways. Jane Williams, vp, sales at Cox Television, says the 15 stations she oversees are producing PSA -- like "dealer appreciation" spots. "We try to be a problem solver for our clients during difficult times," she says.

Granite Broadcasting, with 23 stations, has a sales program to entice local businesses that haven't been predisposed to use TV. "You make your own mark by finding businesses that you drove past a thousand times before but never noticed," says COO John Deushane. The company not only creates ads for the first timers, but also offers attractive rates.

Stations continue to look to their Web sites to bolster revenue. Borrell Associates projects local online audio/video ad revenue will amount to $2.17 billion in '09, up from $1.34 billion this year.

Mike Kelley, advisory partner in PwC's entertainment, media and communications practice, sees an opportunity for stations to produce programming for advertisers adding video to their own sites.

Advertisers like Kroger, Target and Wal-Mart "are becoming big content producers in their own right, and that's an interesting form of revenue," Kelley says.

Janet Stilson is a contributing writer for Mediaweek.



SYNDICATION: No Laughing Matter

Despite the strength of mainstay talk and game shows, sitcoms spell serious
trouble for syndie

By T.L. Stanley

The Syndication business could use a hero right about now, and Sam Raimi knows a little something about that subject.

The director of the Spider-Man franchise and exec producer of '90s syndicated hits like Xena: Warrior Princess and Hercules: The Legendary Journeys, Raimi has a history of delivering the goods on action adventure, fantasy and spectacle. But can he juice up the moribund business of original, hour-long syndication programming?

Viewers will decide when his latest project, a fantasy adventure in the Xena-Hercules mold, launches in the coming weeks. The Legend of the Seeker, premiering Nov. 1, is an epic series from Disney-ABC Domestic Television, based on best-selling books by Terry Goodkind, who is also working on the drama. Shot in New Zealand, the series has cleared about 95 percent of U.S. markets, in weekend time slots, following a summer of Internet chatter and a big marketing push to thousands of fanboys at the Comic-Con convention.

The industry is watching closely to see whether Raimi will replicate his earlier TV success, and whether audiences will respond to Seeker at a time when superhero tales such as The Dark Knight and Iron Man are scoring big at the box office.

"It has the potential to be a game changer," says Bill Carroll, vp, director of programming at Katz Television Group. "The genre has great potential, especially now that everybody has big-screen, high-definition TVs and are looking for something lush with lots of special effects."

Seeker has given a much-needed jolt of excitement to the syndication business, which will end this year flat in terms of spending over '07, per Zenith Optimedia. Forecasts for next year aren't so rosy either, with business stalled (down 1 percent) at $2.62 billion, reports the agency. Veronis Suhler Stevenson projects an even steeper falloff next year of 3.5 percent.

Syndicators are doing what they can to create heat, with fare including new talk shows helmed by Bonnie Hunt and Marie Osmond and a possible court show with Jesse Ventura. It remains to be seen whether newcomers can fix what ails syndie. Several hits are getting long in the tooth, and a handful of big syndie stars -- Oprah Winfrey, Regis Philbin, Alex Trebek -- won't be around forever. At the same time, a crisis in off-network sitcoms, a glut of court shows and a dearth of new game -- show hits compound the market's woes.

The backbone of syndication for years has been off-net comedies like Friends, Frasier and Seinfeld. The trouble is, networks are developing fewer traditional, three-camera sitcoms in favor of fare like 30 Rock and The Office that, while generating watercooler chatter, are not ratings leaders, making them weak candidates for syndication. "They have a specific audience, but they're not really broad-appeal shows," says Carroll.

An added wrinkle is that buzzworthy shows have found life via iTunes, DVDs and concurrent cable airings, giving them wide exposure before they reach the syndication threshold. A bright spot: Several titans of syndie show no sign of slowing. Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy, The Oprah Winfrey Show, Entertainment Tonight and Live with Regis and Kelly still pack 'em in.

"The strength of syndication is in shows that have been around forever -- they've shown very little audience erosion," says Brad Adgate, svp, director of research at Horizon Media. "The newer shows that are called 'successful' actually deliver audience ratings well below the oldsters."

The big question is, would viewers still watch if Philbin, Judge Judy or, heaven forbid, Oprah (locked in through 2011) were to call it quits? "Some [programs], like Oprah and Judge Judy, are such personality-driven shows that no one can replace them," notes Adgate. "The others, it depends on who steps in, but it's unlikely that those shows would be as popular."

T.L. Stanley is a contributing writer for Mediaweek.



DIGITAL: Power Surge

Even in bleak times, digital media eyes meaty, double-digit spike

By Mike Shields

The current downturn will most certainly bode better for digital media than the last. Around 2001, when the dot-com bubble popped and the economy went south, many brands simply bailed on the new medium. But with the Web now accounting for so much of consumers' media usage and a greater share of marketers' media plans, digital should be spared in an ad falloff, analysts concur. In fact, online ad spending, by most accounts, will continue to grow at a robust rate in '09 compared to other media.

Zenith Optimedia projects spending will surge 20.1 percent to $23.81 billion. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects a 17.2 percent uptick to $31.17 billion. Meanwhile, eMarketer, which compiles research from multiple analysts, is more conservative, forecasting 14.5 percent growth. Geoff Ramsey, CEO of eMarketer, expects many analysts to downgrade their forecasts, particularly as the economy faces such upheaval. "You can't ignore what is going on, particularly on Wall Street," he said on a panel at last week's Mixx conference in New York.

Still, growth is growth, and the Web continues to enjoy the benefit of shifting media habits and marketer interest. "It continues to be a focus of advertisers to experiment with ways to communicate on digital platforms," says Russ Sapienza, partner at PwC. That won't change in the face of a recession, he adds. "Companies have long-term views. They need to think about where the next generation of marketing comes from."

Sellers agree that while brands are unlikely to kill Web budgets, they could trim their outlay. But because of all the uncertainty at the moment, many admit to not having a handle on '09.

"Usually by now, marketers are thinking about next year," says John Ardis, vp, corporate strategy at ValueClick. "But a lot of people are not yet talking about 2009. Instead, they're saying, 'We've got to bring this home in fourth quarter...man, we can't miss this.' It's just not as much of a slam dunk."

Even for go-go digital, these are unpredictable times. "The Internet has never really faced this before," says Dave Morris, chief client officer at CNET Networks. "It's going to be a share battle, and we're not used to that. I think that smaller companies are vulnerable next year. Players without established sales forces are going to be behind the eight ball."

Brian Fitzgerald, president of rep firm Gorilla Nation Media, also foresees a more competitive landscape. "It used to be a small percentage of [a brand's] budget going online, and they'd say, 'I don't know that world, so let's buy some stuff on Yahoo! and some keywords on Google and call it a day.' Now, there are so many outlets."

As a result of the numerous outlets, expect more activity in the ad network/exchange space, as publishers large and small experiment with models for packaging the Web's long tail. Other trends to watch in 2009 include the continued growth of online video and social media -- and strategizing about how best to monetize both. Ramsey expects spending on social nets will swell to $1.8 billion in '09, up from $1.4 billion this year. Still, that represents just 6 percent of online advertising, he adds, as sites "really haven't figured out how to monetize it yet."

Advertisers want it figured out soon. As David Kenny, managing partner of Publicis' VivaKi, said at Mixx, "The thing that will move brands to the Web is social networking," adding those sites were the best way to capture the "love of brands."

"The challenge," Kenny went on, "is there are no ad units. You can't just spend more money."

Despite the hype, online video remains a small portion of digital spending. Per eMarketer, it will climb to $750 million in '09, up from $505 million this year. In a time of economic uncertainty, clients tend to gravitate to what they know works, explains Ardis. "It is not going to be a year of speculative spending or experimentation -- it's about blocking and tackling."

Mike Shields is a senior editor covering digital for Mediaweek.



PRINT: Paper Pains

The Web won't be enough to save publishers from sagging ads, rising costs

By Lucia Moses

Following a year marked by double-digit hikes in paper costs, spiking postal rates, steep newsstand declines and a worrisome falloff in ad business, publishers are more than ready to turn the page in '09. Yet with lingering, deep uncertainty about the economy, compounded by the collapse of the financial sector, executives are settling in for a prolonged slump.

In July, with the crisis in the financial markets still building, veteran prognosticator Bob Coen of Universal McCann projected national ads in consumer magazines would grow just 1 percent this year, to $13.93 billion. PricewaterhouseCoopers sees total ad spending on magazine print editions, combined with their Web sites and mobile products, will grow 4.5 percent in '09, to $15.21 billion, an improvement over this year's 3.7 percent growth.

For their part, newspapers -- following this year's bloodbath -- are likely to suffer less brutal declines in '09. PwC calls for newspaper advertising, print and online combined, to dip 2.4 percent to $40.88 billion. That follows a projected 7.7 percent falloff this year, in which business was dragged down by a 15.8 percent drop in classified ads. Veronis Suhler Stevenson projects a 5 percent decline in newspaper ad business in '09, and a 1.3 percent dip for consumer magazines. Zenith Optimedia projects a 4 percent dip for newspapers next year but 5.5 percent growth for consumer magazines. "Publishers are in a real bind: Paper's gone up double digits two years in a row. Postage has gone up. The cost increase has to be passed on to advertisers, but it's tougher this year," says Martin Walker, chairman of the magazine consulting firm Walker Communications.

And in uncertain economic times, monthly magazines' long lead time is a disadvantage with clients, says Charlie Rutman, CEO of buying and planning agency MPG North America. "When you have a 10- to 12-week closing and advertisers are working on a tighter time frame, 12 weeks out is a detriment," he says. "And because of economic circumstances, an awful lot of clients are embracing call-to-action messaging. That's not an inherent strength of the magazine medium."

Business books have already begun to absorb effects of the tsunami hitting the financial markets. Looking at the top seven ad categories across network and spot TV as well as magazines, Coen reports that publishers fared worse than other media, save for restaurant and food ads. And no relief is seen in auto,whose flight from print has hurt male-targeted titles.

Rutman also sees an ongoing shift of financial services and entertainment out of print. He foresees relative stability in fashion/beauty, pharma and food, however, helped by magazines' audience targetability and the bounty of healthy-food ads.

Publishers continue to look to the Web and other brand extensions. Their digital revenue growth, while slowing, still helps offset declines in print.

Audience-transparency initiatives could also help. As more publishers participate in the Audit Bureau of Circulations' Rapid Report and as more media buyers use the issue-specific reporting service, magazines could find themselves on a more equal footing with electronic media, analysts say.

Still, publishers are expected to continue retrenchment next year, cutting rate base and frequency and folding underperforming brands. This, even as they bet on new products. On tap: a food title from Hearst Magazines and the Food Network and health and DIY titles from Reader's Digest Association.

Despite the challenges, some are bullish. "People don't only want to look at a screen all day," says Robin Steinberg, svp, director of print investment and activation at MediaVest. "They want different experiences. Magazines are authoritative, credible and informative as well as visually appealing."

Lucia Moses is a senior editor covering print for Mediaweek.



RADIO: Tuning Out

Streaming shows promise, but radio still hobbled by weak auto, retail

By Katy Bachman

This was supposed to be the year radio saw a turnaround. It hasn't happened. In August, year-over-year revenue plummeted to its lowest level yet, down 12 percent, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau, setting up 2008 as the eighth year of stagnant growth for radio and its third year of negative growth.

And don't expect better news in 2009. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects a 1.9 percent year-over-year decline in radio ad business in the coming year, amounting to $17.22 billion, following years of flat performance. Veronis Suhler Stevenson projects a 1.6 percent decline for broadcast and satellite radio combined.

Teetering on the brink of recession, the economy has taken a toll on all traditional media. Dependent on local advertising for 80 percent of its business, radio's biggest categories -- finance, retail and automotive, which together make up 45 percent of revenue, per TNS/Media Intelligence -- have remained shaky. Retail has been moving out of spot and toward network radio, the one segment of the business that's bucked the negative trend.

"While we expect the economy to begin to improve in 2009, we believe it will take longer for local advertising to recover given the trend toward fewer retailers and the shift in spending to the Internet," PwC states in its annual forecast.

The radio market is a far cry from the flush days of early consolidation. Several major radio companies, dragged down by declining revenue and burdened with enormous debt, risk getting delisted from Nasdaq, among them, Citadel Broadcasting, Radio One, Regent Communications and Westwood One.

Not only did the radio business fall out of favor on Wall Street, but also Madison Avenue. Radio's share of ad spend has steadily declined for years. Since 2004, its share has slipped from a high of 7.8 percent to 7.2 percent last year, per TNS/MI, while the Internet and other media have picked up share.

"I don't see radio rebounding until 2010," says Mary Barnas, evp, director of local broadcast at Carat USA. The industry has worked to grow other categories to offset the falloff in auto dollars, including fast food, beverages and packaged goods. "We're less reliant on [auto] as time goes on," says Michael Weiss, president of sales at CBS Radio.

While the number of people that tune in to radio has remained steady, time spent listening has declined nearly 20 percent in the last decade, reports Arbitron. "Radio has entered and seems stuck in a new, discouraging territory with the dual challenges of a secular slide and cyclical, recessionary times biting ever deeper," CL King analyst Jim Boyle wrote in a recent report.

Broadcasters have employed initiatives to stimulate business, ranging from offering ad spots of varied length to sponsorships of entire stations. That's drawn some interest from advertisers, but has not moved the revenue needle.

There is a bright spot: stations' online business. In the first half of this year, revenue from off-air ads -- most of it from stations' Web sites - climbed 12 percent versus '07. The RAB predicts off-air business to pass $2 billion in '09.

Mobile is another growth area. AOL Radio, powered by CBS, is one of the most popular iPhone applications, while Microsoft's Zune lets users tag and purchase songs straight from the radio.

Deals like those "represent a phenomenal shift-radio has a utility it never had before," says Jeff Haley, president/CEO of the RAB.

"We are going to have to do things differently and not just rely on avails," says Weiss. "People are listening differently. Streaming is growing and it's creating a new daypart, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. We've changed a lot-but we have to change more."

Katy Bachman is a senior editor covering radio for Mediaweek.



OUT OF HOME: A Knockout

Explosion in digital boards, new measurement methods expected to juice OOH business

By Richard Zitrin

Technology, coupled with advancements in audience measurement, are expected to spur growth in the out-of-home media sector in 2009.

OOH spending will rise 7 percent to $8.21 billion, PricewaterhouseCoopers projects. Zenith Optimedia paints an even rosier scenario, projecting 11.3 percent growth to $8.71 billion.

The optimistic outlook comes amid a slowdown this year due to a soft economy. OOH is up less than 3 percent for the year, below the 4.7 growth PwC had projected.

Despite that recent softness, OOH remains overall one of the fastest-growing ad categories, second only to online. Technology remains key to that success, as the marketplace is transformed by the expansion of digital billboards, video networks and other new means of reaching consumers outside the home.

PwC partner Stefanie Kane calls OOH "a shining star in the industry" and "a poster child for one of the entertainment and media segments that has been able to capitalize on the digital revolution."

Starcom svp, OOH media Jack Sullivan, says technology "has leaped forward and made it much more efficient for advertisers to chase decision-makers" in the OOH world.

Nationally, some 500 digital displays have been installed in the last few years. PwC projects more than 500,000 will be in place in the coming years. It's no wonder OOH vendors are embracing digital boards, which sport rotating ads that change every 8 to 10 seconds and can produce 10 to 20 times the revenue of static posters, per PwC.

Jodi Senese, CBS Outdoor evp of marketing, reports seeing a lot of interest in the marketplace for '09, with clients expressing interest in digital and spectacular static programs in particular. "Everybody likes to dominate. Everybody's looking to make a big splash," Senese says.

Mobile connectivity is of growing interest. Senese points to the success of Chase's text-message campaign this past summer in the New York area, which put ads on taxicabs, bus shelters, phone kiosks, billboards and subways.

Meanwhile, captive video networks are popping up in malls, airports, supermarkets, gyms, auto dealerships and commuter trains. OOH video is growing more than 25 percent annually, reports PwC.

Clients are looking at OOH video in a more positive light, although audience measurement is crucial to continued growth in the $1.3 billion segment, says Suzanne Alecia, president of the Out-of-Home Video Advertising Bureau. The group has developed measurement guidelines, vetting them with agencies, clients and research firms to "fast track" getting measurement programs in place. Nielsen recently rolled out the first standardized reporting system for video networks.

As stated, advancements in audience measurement for OOH media overall stand to boost fortunes in the sector in '09. The Traffic Audit Bureau is ramping up its Eyes On program, which will measure how many people look at an ad and how much time they spend doing so.

"We're going to have some very granular, very sophisticated measurement for the industry unlike perhaps what's ever been seen for any medium," says Stephen Freitas, chief marketing officer, Outdoor Advertising Association of America.

Howard Greiner, Buntin's president/chief operating officer of OOH media, says the sector has turned a corner, increasingly finding its way into media plans -- and improved audience measurement can only help.

"I think media planners will be much more comfortable in being able to justify spending dollars in the format because they can now better define who the medium is actually reaching," says Greiner.

Richard Zitrin is a contributing writer for Mediaweek.