- Katy Bachman

NEW YORK BIA Advisory Services today lowered its 2009 revenue forecast for TV stations from 15 percent to a 17.3 percent decline. The revised forecast of $16.6 billion is the lowest annual revenue for the TV station industry since 1995.

A turnaround isn't expected until 2012, when BIA forecasts revenue of $17.6 billion, following three years of flat growth.

The rough economy is also having an adverse effect on TV station transactions as both buyers and sellers wait for conditions to improve. In the first half of the year, transactions for 45 stations totaled $453 million, a slight increase over last year.

The silver lining for the business is the developing second revenue stream online. BIA's The Kelsey Group is forecasting TV station Internet revenue to total $556 million this year, reaching $1.1 billion by 2013, a 19.7 percent compounded annual growth rate.

"TV stations will see a return to profitability the quicker they see themselves as local information and entertainment companies rather than simply television transmitters," BIA said. "Broadcasters have extraordinary opportunities to parlay their local content with the public through multiple digital platforms."

BIA also called on the Federal Communications Commission to revisit cross-ownership and local ownership rules to help improve the economic health of the industry.

"With local media companies dying on the vine and the television industry, in particular, hamstrung in many large and small markets, it seems like a good time to explore the steps to save local media outlets," said Tom Buono, CEO of BIA. "As this media ecosystem has changed and the advertising marketplace contracted, immediate government intervention to allow media companies to survive and prosper is clearly in the public's best interest."


Nielsen Business Media