- David Gianatasio

BOSTON As if the media and ad business needed more bad news, Aegis Group's Carat has slashed its global and U.S. ad spending forecasts for 2009 and '10.

Carat said U.S. ad spending would decline almost 10 percent this year; it will be basically flat in '10.

Global spending in '09 will decline nearly 6 percent and rise slightly less than 1 percent next year, Carat projects.

That global picture is especially bleak, with all ad markets expected to drop except for China, which should grow 4.6 percent and 7.2 percent in '09 and '10, respectively. Most of the big agency holding companies have made the Chinese market a priority in recent years as revenue streams have slowed elsewhere.

In its August 2008 projections, made shortly before the global economic slump began in earnest, Carat had projected '09 gains in U.S. and global ad spending of 3 and 5 percent, respectively.

Aegis Media CEO Jerry Buhlman did inject cautious optimism in releasing the new numbers today, noting that "some countries in 2010," such as the U.K., and parts of Europe and Asia, should "start to stabilize."

In general, prognosticators have revised projections for ad spending downward in recent weeks. Most have said U.S. outlays would dip in the mid-single digits this year, making Carat's projection one of the gloomiest yet. An especially grim forecast by WPI sees a 15-20 percent drop.


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