This time last year, the world financial system looked on the verge of collapse, and there was much talk that the recession would morph into another Great Depression. Despite rising unemployment since then, the most dire scenarios have not materialized, and there have been spotty indications that the worst may be behind us. It is, however, striking to see from a batch of polls this month how glum large numbers of Americans remain about the national economy and their own financial prospects. While some economists say the recession has technically ended, consumers in general aren't buying it.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll is all too typical. When asked to "rate the economic conditions in the country today," 1 percent deemed them "very good" and 19 percent "somewhat good." A landslide majority termed economic conditions "somewhat poor" (38 percent) or "very poor" (42 percent). That's better than the pattern of response in a December 2008 edition of this survey, when 66 percent of respondents described the economy as "very poor." The thing is, when starting from such a dismal base, a modest rise of the sort we've seen since last December still leaves the public's economic spirits at a near-despondent level.

Moreover, there's only spotty confidence that the economy is moving in an upward direction. In an Economist/YouGov poll, the proportion of respondents saying the economy is "getting worse" (36 percent) was significantly higher than the number saying it's "getting better" (25 percent), with most of the rest saying it's staying about the same. Responses were slightly more upbeat in an Associated Press/GfK poll that asked people whether they think the economy improved or worsened "in the past month." Twenty-four percent said it got better during that period, while 21 percent said it got worse. Looking ahead to how economic conditions will be "a year from now," just 5 percent in the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey predicted they'll be "very good." An outright majority, 53 percent, think conditions will be "somewhat good" a year from now, while 25 percent think conditions will be "somewhat poor" and 18 percent "very poor."

THE RECESSION IS OVER? HA!

The notion that the recession has already ended is treated as a bad joke by the public at large. An ABC News/Washington Post poll referred specifically to the recession-is-over judgment of "many economists" and asked respondents to say, based on "your own experience of economic conditions," whether the recession has really ended. Just 13 percent agreed that it has, while 86 percent said it has not. Nor is there any consensus that 2010 will be the year in which the economy rebounds. In StrategyOne polling, just 27 percent said they expect the economy to have "fully recovered" by the end of 2010. Nineteen percent think a full recovery will come "by the end of 2011" and 32 percent "after the end of 2011." Fifteen percent think "it won't ever fully recover." The one bit of (comparatively) good news in the StrategyOne poll is that 42 percent think the economy "has already bottomed out and is getting better," up from 28 percent saying the same in July.

In a phenomenon referred to in polling circles as "local positivity," respondents typically have a cheerier outlook on their own immediate circumstances than they do on the world at large. But surveys throughout 2009 have found much of the general economic gloom carrying over to individuals' assessments of their own financial condition. That has continued to be the case in the surveys fielded this month.

In George Washington University's Battleground polling, conducted by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, just under half the respondents had a positive take on their "personal economic situation." Seven percent rated it as "excellent" and 41 percent as "good." But that left about half terming it "just fair" (38 percent) or "poor" (13 percent). The Economist/YouGov survey asked respondents to compare their current financial situation to that of a year ago. Eight percent said they're better off; 50 percent said they're worse off.



STANDARD OF LIVING WORRIES

Judging by the ABC News/Washington Post survey, there has been scarcely any decline since May in the number of people who are concerned about "being able to maintain your current standard of living." Sixty-four percent said they're worried about this, including 24 percent who are "very" worried. In the May survey, 68 percent were worried, including 28 percent "very" worried.

However people feel about their current finances, many are nervous about what lies ahead. In an American Research Group poll, 11 percent of respondents said their household's financial situation is "getting better," while 35 percent said it's "getting worse." Looking ahead to a year from now, 26 percent said they think their household's finances will be better, matching the number who think they'll be worse. An Ipsos Public Affairs survey garnered more upbeat results when it asked respondents to forecast their personal financial situation six months hence: Thirty-five percent said they expect it to be stronger, vs. 13 percent expecting it to be weaker.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, let alone an economist, to figure out that the high unemployment rate is a big reason for Americans' anxiety about the national economy and their own financial prospects. In a Quinnipiac University poll, a stunning 28 percent of respondents answered "yes" when asked whether they or anyone else in their household has "been laid off or lost their job" in the past year. Among respondents in the under-$50,000 income bracket, 36 percent said so.

JOB-LOSS ANXIETY

People who have held onto their jobs so far don't take it for granted that they'll continue to do so. In NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling, 33 percent of employed respondents rated themselves as "very satisfied" with their "current job security," with another 34 percent "somewhat satisfied." Fourteen percent said they're "somewhat dissatisfied" on that score, and 18 percent said they're "very dissatisfied." And the so-called "green shoots" in the economy don't appear to have helped matters on this front. In the Ipsos Public Affairs survey, 28 percent said they're more confident about job security for themselves, their household and others they "know personally" than was the case six months ago, but 62 percent said they're less confident. A Bloomberg poll, meanwhile, found 28 percent of respondents feeling "worse off" than they did a year ago about job security for themselves and others in their household, vs. 7 percent feeling "better off" about this.

Anyhow, fear of a reduction in income isn't limited to fear of losing one's job. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 14 percent of respondents said it's "extremely likely" and 15 percent "very likely" that someone in their household will "have their overtime hours or bonus reduced" in the next 12 months. One in five think it's "extremely" likely (10 percent) or "very" likely (10 percent) that a household member will have his or her wages cut within that period.

Of course, the costs of the recession have not been strictly financial. One question in the ABC News/Washington Post poll asked, "Is the current economic situation a cause of stress in your life, or not?" Fifty-seven percent said it is, including 28 percent saying it has caused "serious" stress.

See also: "Confidence in Finance Sector Sags"