Blur 4: Consumer and Publisher

It is now hackneyed to say that the consumer is the new journalist. There are now approximately 20 million independent Weblogs, and most Google searches list user-generated content (UGC) on the first page. Bloggers are increasingly becoming media owners in their own right with a growing number influencing the influencers: a recent survey of 5,000 journalists found that 75 percent used blogs for research and many newspapers actually referencing blogs in copy. This has huge implications for brands, which can be damaged or boosted by the opinions of the satisfied or disgruntled.

Over the next five years blogs will become increasingly sophisticated with higher quality content, links to other sites, RSS feeds, online applications, video and images. Some blogs are already doing this, such as www.eventful.com, which combines an RSS feed of forthcoming gigs overlaid onto Google Maps and then integrated with free music downloads from other sites. And sites such as Stumble and Digg index the high-ranking blogs. The influence of these blogging opinion formers will continue and those most active in the blogging sphere - teenagers - will also be a key consumer group in terms of spending in five years' time. This represents an opportunity and a threat for advertisers.

By 2014, bloggers will also increasingly be looking to profit from their opinions. It is easy to imagine a situation whereby pioneering bloggers create their content, embed it with Google AdWords and post it as an RSS feed, receiving advertising revenue from the resulting clicks on ads. This will lead to the advent of "super influencers" - high-quality bloggers whose content is liberated and propagated by many. Understanding this ecosystem is going to become more and more important, particularly for high-value product categories where consumers undergo significant research before making a decision about, for example, cars and holidays.

What Does This Mean for the Media Agency?

Understanding how to influence the influencers will be crucial. As the IPA Future Foundation Report predicted in its study on agency requirements in 2016, communications agencies will have to become adept at online reputation management. For example, if a hotel client receives negative reviews on a hotel recommendation site, such as TripAdvisor.com, it will be the agency's role to first alert the brand to this criticism and then advise on appropriate action to regain credibility. This could, for instance, be a posting from the CEO apologizing for any mistakes made and pledging to correct them as soon as possible. This has predominantly been the domain of the PR agencies, but there is no reason why media agencies cannot deliver this skill set.

Blur 5: Online and Real-Life Experience

Over the next five years we will see the "Y Generation" (the 16-30-year-olds of 2014) increasingly blur their online identities with their offline social lives. This age group is completely at ease with creating identities online, whether it is via an avatar, blog or social networking site. For younger kids, it is all they have known, with sites such as Webkinz and Disney's Club Penguin currently proving popular. These social networking sites will continue to link to mobile phones in the future, tapping into the benefits of location-based data and opening up a whole new world where users can see where contacts are on a map of their area while interfacing with them through an avatar.

What Does This Mean for the Media Agency?

The implications will be similar to those outlined in Blur 3 and again expand the creative remit of media agencies. Agencies will employ software developers that understand these communities and can create engaging branded experiences for them. There are a few new consultancies starting to offer these services, but this will become mainstream by 2014.

Can we make any other predictions about what the media agency of 2014 will be like? Yes, we certainly can.

Prediction 1: By 2014, clients can expect the same level of control, accountability and transparency that they currently enjoy for direct media, for all media.

We can confidently say that clients will continue to challenge agencies to demonstrate the ROI of all communications. By 2014, clients can expect to see improved software systems that provide a similar level of control, accountability and transparency as they currently enjoy for direct media. This process will be accelerated by new players that offer clients total accountability of their marketing spend, such as Google TV, which not only serves relevant ads to viewers but can track every penny of an ad campaign. Over the next five years, agencies will follow Google's lead and will have successfully developed models that allow clients to see the payback of all media. Debate is currently raging about how to do this effectively, but everyone agrees that well-maintained customer data is vital to any solution.