NEW YORK Coming so soon after last fall's near-collapse of the global financial system, the 2008 holiday-shopping season was doomed from the start. Now, with an economic landscape that features some signs of recovery alongside plenty of lousy numbers (and plenty of consumer anxiety), how can we expect 2009's holiday-shopping season to pan out? Some early forecasts suggest we'll see another less-than-robust season, though one that offers some opportunities to marketers who are in sync with the current consumer mood.

A report last week from Deloitte predicted holiday-shopping sales this year will be unchanged from last year's $810 billion, which itself was down 2.4 percent from 2007's figure. A BIGresearch survey this month found 40 percent of respondents budgeting less for gifts than they did last year, while a mere 4 percent were budgeting more. An Information Resources Inc. (IRI) report released this month suggests consumers are "more hopeful" than last year and could "selectively open their wallets wider." But its polling, fielded last month, also sees just 23 percent of respondents adopting a gift-giving budget of $800 or more, "down 13 percent from 2008."

As significant as early indications of total spending, though, are shifts in the ways consumers are likely to go about their holiday shopping -- and, hence, in the way marketers should address potential customers. As IRI's report notes, people "are taking a more strategic approach to shopping this year." And that's reflective of a deeper change in the way they view their expenditures. Thom Blischok, president of IRI Consulting & Innovation, speaks of a new "economic sobriety" in consumers who've seen their retirement funds shrink, the value of their house decline and so on. The consumer mantra now, he says, is "I really have to save more and live more conservatively."

In this environment, people will still spend money, but marketers must give them a pragmatic reason for doing so, Christmas or no Christmas. "Ads must emphasize innovative ways that gifts can be integrated into everyday life," says Blischok. "People will be buying through the lens of affordability and functionality -- 'Can I really afford it, and is it functional?'" They'll be looking for gifts that will stay in use and not get stuck in a closet after the holidays, he adds.

Nor is it strictly a matter of people having fewer discretionary dollars to toss around. "The whole movement from conspicuous consumption to conscious consumption has been permeating all levels of society," says Mary Delk, a director in Deloitte Consulting's retail practice. "Consumers are moving toward being more reflective about their spending," she says, partly in tandem with an increasing concern about "sustainability." And they want to see marketing that acknowledges this new sensibility, and isn't just talking about price. "Instead of marketing something as a low price point, they could be emphasizing that you're a conscientious consumer," she says.

Whatever their motivation, consumers will be more careful about the ways they spend their money. One reflection of this, according to IRI's research, will be widespread use of shopping lists for holiday shopping. Just 18 percent of IRI's respondents expect to do their holiday-gift shopping without a shopping list in hand --- which means it's important for marketers to get brand messages across to them before they walk into a store. And in shopping for foods and beverages for holiday entertaining, just 11 percent of respondents said they'd forgo a shopping list. "By the time they get to the store, people's minds will be pretty well made up directionally," says Blischok. That presents a challenge for in-store marketing. It can still be effective, says Blischok, if it links up with "the rest of the brand promise" as consumers have encountered it elsewhere, including online. But it can't be "in-store display just for the sake of in-store display."