Ogilvy is S.O.L. on Wachovia, the bailout failed to pass and ad spending is falling through the floor. Are we in the beginning stages of the Apocalypse, as Christopher Hitchens would suggest?
Well who knows, although all signs point to, “Hell yeah, we’re screwed.” We’ve been hearing that in terms of business leads (especially real estate), New York is running short. Since it’s nearly impossible to get a loan these days, and media spending just dove from the high dive into a 4-inches-deep pool, it’s really no surprise that growth (for some) has been slow. For example, we heard Posner Advertising, a New York/Florida/California shop is sending folks to Dubai in hopes of drumming up some leads.
Sounds more like an evacuation plan — why the hell would anyone in Dubai pay American prices? For the talent, of course! For example, that of New York based Posner, which we’re told will be opening a Dubai based shop by January of 2009. That according to Win Peniston, VP of business strategy and development.
The agency, with satellites in Miami and LA, is mostly real estate focused. And with a struggling US real estate market, Peniston is headed to the UAE to speak at City Scape Dubai (he was invited).
“What we’re hearing is ‘get here and you’ll be busy as hornets,’ ” said Peniston.
Makes sense, since Dubai has been exploding with new real estate ventures over the past 10 years. But the problem, and the reason Ponser hopes to get busy, is that most of the interest in Dubai is coming from local investors, says Peniston. He believes his agency can help Dubai by attracting travelers and business folk from abroad, mainly Eurpoe. Without their business, he thinks the city is destined for meager growth — a la current economic climate stateside.
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Posner’s plan makes sense on paper. He’ll head up the charge abroad, and will write proposals all the while. City Scape should garner interest, and since few agencies down there (according to Peniston) are as focused on real estate, Posner stands a fighting chance of making an impression. Keep in mind, many global shops are-or-will-be sticking their flag in the ground too — but Peniston says his agency’s got the experience that matters.
In the long run, his goal is to bring work back to the US — with the beleaguered real estate market here, Peniston believes UAE-borne investors might see a great deal in the hundreds of half-built condos/resorts/hotels across the US. Since Posner has offices in Miami, LA and New York — well you get the picture. It could invigorate a shop that’s got little viability in the current local market.
“…at some point there will be a lot of money coming into depressed, overbuilt markets where developers have had their asses handed to them,” said Peniston.
But if it doesn’t work, we aren’t convinced Posner’s current work (resorts in the Bahamas, Caribbean, Mexico; apartments in New York, etc) will be enough to keep the shop afloat. Like any tribe on the brink of starvation, they’re wisely following the herd to greener pastures. We’ll get back to Posner in January (if not sooner) to see how their new shop is doing.
Update: We hear Posner is undergoing its fourth round of layoffs since the beginning of the summer.
“The Emirati Dirham is three to one versus the dollar. Its cheaper to pay Americans as this point.”