If you’re a gambling man, you might want to bet against the pending mega-merger and the double-headed hydra it would create.
Earlier this week, WPP’s Martin Sorrell gleefully told Reuters–via a little birdie–that chances of the deal going through were less than even. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts at Albert Fried had lowered the official odds to 40% (the previous number was 66%) while downgrading the theoretical stock price from $70 to $56.
The fact that Publicis recently lost Microsoft, Samsung and Miller Lite didn’t help; the defections have compounded risks created by a clashing of egos over the contested CFO role.
All involved parties still say the deal will go through, primarily because “there’s a $500 million break-up fee at stake”, so we expect to see a few more upbeat press releases in the days ahead.
As principals at both companies sweat a bit more heavily this week than last, WPP may have already begun planning its victory lap.